2011年12月24日星期六

we do not know who will be the Europe of Bear Stearns

129667864393271642_204On August 8 of the report of the United States debt rating downgrade remain Providence, a second recession and European debt is to the immediate woes prompted European debt problems are worsening.  September 11 report of the Greece debt crisis intensified again, prompting central banks in developed countries compete to loose pattern of early Europe pain may spread to the banking system liquidity risk is debt countries. Report of October 27 the European debt crisis countermeasures boxClear prompt political risks remain in the path twists and turns.  In the last week of November 20 weekly risk further deepening of the European debt, United States agree on debt, pointing out that 3 class a State bond yields a collective jumped, suggesting further spread to the core countries of the European debt crisis, United States financial institutions are not immune. European debt's fire has burned to Berlin! Yesterday, GermanyNational debt flow 35% the old republic power leveling, whose 10-year government bond yields soared 23bp to 2.15%. We have been worrying situation has finally become reality, the market for "Germany is a European debt haven" confidence in the logic began to shake.  European debt fire eventually spread to Berlin. Colored crude oil fall is not surprising, gold drop vigilance! In the global economy into a downward channel, Europe became a gunpowder barrels of circumstances, such as oil, nonferrous metals fell in risk assets not exceeding expectations swtor power leveling, but as the haven assets of gold fell below 1700, implies market concerns about the coming recession and deflation. Europe needs to immediately hand width seems to be the only option. Commodities, eurozone sovereign debt, and underwrite a $ 5 trillion of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan ChaseMore and more difficult to get the trust of investors, investors have not found outside of the US debt to assets that can be configured. This is similar to the case in early 08 United States. At this stage in Europe, must immediately introduce a policy of strength (Paulson says "rocket launcher"), will it be possible to stabilize the market confidence. Rate cut is to be expected, but cuts go far enough, some form of wideIs the ultimate option. Even if no helping hand in Europe, markets will also be used round storm forced its hand! Funding from a variety of asset return pattern of the US debt, liquidity problems had emerged in a financial chain is almost to be expected, we do not know who will be the Europe of Bear Stearns, but if Europe continues to hesitate, the market will be forced into must with a round of storms hitSituation.    But Europe is not much time left. (Specific content please see annex)

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